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The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events.Unity using textmesh pro
PredictWise is run by David Rothschild an innovative, and stylish economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, but should in no way be construed as representing the views or predictions of Microsoft or any of its entities.
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Prior to the end of the primary strategic or upset party voters will state they will not vote for the other possible nominees. That is helpful to their candidate. Clinton, but not vote or vote for Clinton v. Starting with the 2012 map, Clinton just needs to hold VA, OH, or FL.
Pollster averages have her up by 12 pp in VA, 3 pp in OH, and 2 pp in FL. Real Clear has her up 13 pp in VA, 1. This tends to have some predictive power, in addition to polls, at this early point. Clinton has more money in the bank and will likely out raise Trump by a lot.
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She will have a more unified GOTV game. And, she is extremely vetted. Trump, while in the public spotlight has not been vetted as closely (no one has). Politics When Will Trump Leave Office. We created PredictWise because we thought it would be interesting and informative for people to better understand the likelihood of certain major events occurring, and to have that information presented in a manner that is easy to comprehend.
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